Commentary: This posting is in a series of posts summarizing the book, "Lights In The Sky and Little Green Men" by Hugh Ross, Kenneth Samples, and Mark Clark. Hugh Ross is a scientist in physics and Clark has a PHd in political science. The other authors specialize in social sciences, philosophies, and international relations. The full series can be reviewed at UFOs an Alternative Look.
The concept of a conspiracy theory is that a small cabal of people are operating against a larger weaker group. The cabal secretly orchestrates situations to their benefit and to the detriment of the larger group. A small number of people in the larger group work to expose the cabal that is well resourced, organized, and powerful.
Government Conspiracies
The concept of a conspiracy theory is that a small cabal of people are operating against a larger weaker group. The cabal secretly orchestrates situations to their benefit and to the detriment of the larger group. A small number of people in the larger group work to expose the cabal that is well resourced, organized, and powerful.
UFO buffs claim the US Government secretly is covering up the existence of aliens. These buffs claim that the absence of proof, is proof itself of a well orchestrated cover up. Conspiracy theorist rarely consider the possibility that they misrepresent facts and allow assumptions to rule judgments. They do not allow for a scientific method and ignore or find fault with evidence amassed.
Real conspiracies do exist. Most of them are compromised or discovered quickly. Few, if any, conspiracies can be kept secret for long periods. Keeping a UFO coverup for 50 years would be nearly impossible. Yet, UFO conspiracy theorist tout Roswell, Project Blue Book, Area 51, and other pet subjects in a loud voice as evidence of a Government coverup.
Political Culture
The United States has had a history of anti-governmental conspiracy theories. Americans are naturally suspicious people. The American Framers intentionally designed a government that institutionalizes a battle for power knowing that human tendency is to accumulate power. Conspiracy theories are not uniquely American. Although, evidence suggest that the UFO conspiracy theory is more common in the West than elsewhere.
The Psychological Dynamic
Many models exist to describe how people process information. The model that applies to UFO conspiracy theorist is the Cognitive Psychological Model.
People process information either in a theory or data driven manner. Theory driven processing is interpreting information based prior beliefs and knowledge. This processing begins with an assumption and is filter through that lens. Data driven processing begins with data collection and assimilation. The theory is formulated based on the raw information.
Commentary: These information processing theories get at the notion of truth theory. On one end of the scale of truths is a correspondent truth. At the other end of the scale is an epistemic truth. A correspondent truth is similar to data driven information processing and correlates to a fact or is self evident. An epistemic truth is based on a set of relatively 'good' assumptions similar to theory driven information processing. One has to evaluate the assumptions usually based on inferential logic to determine the strength of it's virtue and validity.
Theory driven thinking is less taxing than inductive time consuming data driven thinking. Theory driven thinking is simply more efficient. For this reason alone, psychologist point to theory driven thinking as employed more frequently. The are five reasons for theory driven thinking given by scholar Robert Jervis:
- Most people construct their own personal image of reality.
- Most people develop a set of beliefs and images about their physical and social environment as they mature.
- The construction of a person's experience is highly selective.
- People see what they expect to see based on personal experience, prior advice, or on cultural bias.
- People assimilate information according to their pre-existing beliefs.
- Additionally, people maintain cognitive consistency.
The problem with theory driven thinking is that it leads to errors as an outcome of perceptions and predispositions that people seek information to confirm. This is known as hypothesis-confirming bias which keeps people from considering the full body of knowledge. If they do consider discrepant information they tend to dismiss as irrelevant or not credible. These bias undermines people's ability to value alternative interpretations and theories of a given event or behavior. People tend to look at their assumptions first then the data interpreting it in terms of the assumptions. Their other problem is that peoples beliefs resist change under normal circumstances.
There are three points used to judge if someone is engaged in irrational cognitive consistency.
1. They fail to consider a large amount of information contrary to their views.
2. They fail to consider obvious and important events that warrant attention.
3. They fail look for evidence that is clearly available.
UFO conspiracy theorists generally meet, at least, one or two if not all three of these criteria.
Contrary Evidence
Credible information exists that contradicts the UFO conspiracy theorist. Yet the theorist have never been able to produce credible evidence or data of their own other than a few hoaxes on community bulletins. These theorist also never explain how the Government or a small clique of rogue officials could keep a lid on an operation of the scale that UFO theorist purport. Keeping secrets is virtually impossible in the modern day as dribbles of information leak in various ways.
UFO reports seem to pace the technological advance of stealth aircraft design efforts. Theorist rarely have situational awareness. Thus, these advances would appear near revolutionary. Contact to solid reasoning based on factual evidence, UFO theorist often present spurious search and wild speculations based on questionable sources. They also retell stories over and over with 'evidence' or testimony elicited from suspicious characters. The stories are retold to the point they become truths in the theorist minds.
Popular Opinion
UFO conspiracy theory has become a fade in America. In 1996, a Gallup poll indicated that 70% of Americans believe in Governmental coverups regarding UFOs. This may hold true since for the 40 years prior the US Government has many questionable events such as Watergate, Vietnam, questionable electoral processes, etc... The UFO phenomenon is cast as a negative which is impossible to disprove. There is always one more person, hangar, or shred of evidence that keeps resurfacing.
The theory is more of an ideology than a true theory. In a natural science lab experiments are conducted to verify the hypothesis. In social sciences, the hypothesis is tested against historical evidence. If the evidence is contrary the to the explanation the assumptions must be adjusted. The same is true for rational cognitive consistency regarding UFOs. Yet the ideologue is under no such compulsion to adjust the ideology. So they constantly reinterpret the evidence as one more person, document, or event becomes known. The public is endlessly duped into believing in the conspiracy mill theories.
Ockham's Razor
This dictum states when two or more competing theories explain an event then the simplest one is probably closer to the truth. The razor slices away unnecessary assumptions. No one has to be a scholar to do this.
Common sense and a healthy respect for the interests of the Government go a long way towards explaining the Government's behavior. For a variety of reasons, conspiracy theorists engage in irrational cognitive consistency and maintain their cognitive balance in an irrational way ignoring the absence of evidence. They also fail to provide evidence for their position and refuse to acknowledge contrary valid evidence.
References
Ross, H., Samples, K., & Clark, M. (2002). Lights in the sky and little green men: a rational christian look at UFOs and extraterrestrials. Navpress: Colorado
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